COP — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($109.42)
DCF	$92.09	-15.8%
Graham Number	$86.72	-20.7%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 7.6%
DDM	$69.22	-36.7%
EV/EBITDA	$108.78	-0.6%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $7.36B

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -6.8% / EPS: -38.5%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 5.47%

Computed WACC: 5.47%

Cost of equity (Re)5.90%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.29 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)3.79%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)85.22%

Debt weight (D/V)14.78%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$219.09

Current Price$109.42

Upside / Downside+100.2%

Net Debt (used)$16.46B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$93.00	$114.52	$139.56	$168.55	$201.93
8.0%	$74.06	$91.39	$111.51	$134.77	$161.53
9.0%	$60.94	$75.36	$92.09	$111.41	$133.60
10.0%	$51.30	$63.61	$77.86	$94.29	$113.15
11.0%	$43.93	$54.62	$66.98	$81.22	$97.54

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $6.35

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $52.63

Results

Graham Number$86.72

Current Price$109.42

Margin of Safety-20.7%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 5.47%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 5.47%

Cost of equity (Re)5.90%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.29 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)3.79%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)85.22%

Debt weight (D/V)14.78%

Results

Current Price$109.42

Implied Near-term FCF Growth-4.6%

Historical Revenue Growth-6.8%

Historical Earnings Growth-38.5%

Base FCF (TTM)$7.36B

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $3.36

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$69.22

Current Price$109.42

Upside / Downside-36.7%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $23.89B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 6.3×

Net Debt($B)Default: $16.46B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$108.78

Current Price$109.42

Upside / Downside-0.6%

Implied EV$149.74B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$8.46B	$12.46B	$16.46B	$20.46B	$24.46B
2.3x	$37.32	$34.05	$30.79	$27.52	$24.26
4.3x	$76.32	$73.05	$69.79	$66.52	$63.26
6.3x	$115.31	$112.05	$108.78	$105.52	$102.25
8.3x	$154.31	$151.05	$147.78	$144.52	$141.25
10.3x	$193.31	$190.05	$186.78	$183.52	$180.25

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