CSX — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($42.78)
DCF	$-0.96	-102.3%
Graham Number	$15.66	-63.4%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 36.2%
DDM	$11.54	-73.0%
EV/EBITDA	$42.78	+0.0%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $970.50M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -0.9% / EPS: -0.4%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 9.03%

Computed WACC: 9.03%

Cost of equity (Re)11.25%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.26 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)80.31%

Debt weight (D/V)19.69%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-1.01

Current Price$42.78

Upside / Downside-102.4%

Net Debt (used)$18.83B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$-0.89	$0.98	$3.16	$5.67	$8.57
8.0%	$-2.53	$-1.03	$0.72	$2.74	$5.06
9.0%	$-3.67	$-2.42	$-0.96	$0.71	$2.64
10.0%	$-4.51	$-3.44	$-2.20	$-0.77	$0.86
11.0%	$-5.15	$-4.22	$-3.14	$-1.91	$-0.49

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $1.54

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $7.07

Results

Graham Number$15.66

Current Price$42.78

Margin of Safety-63.4%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 9.03%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 9.03%

Cost of equity (Re)11.25%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.26 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)80.31%

Debt weight (D/V)19.69%

Results

Current Price$42.78

Implied Near-term FCF Growth36.3%

Historical Revenue Growth-0.9%

Historical Earnings Growth-0.4%

Base FCF (TTM)$970.50M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $0.56

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$11.54

Current Price$42.78

Upside / Downside-73.0%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $6.42B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 15.3×

Net Debt($B)Default: $18.83B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$42.78

Current Price$42.78

Upside / Downside+0.0%

Implied EV$98.39B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$8.83B	$13.83B	$18.83B	$23.83B	$28.83B
11.3x	$34.34	$31.65	$28.97	$26.28	$23.59
13.3x	$41.25	$38.56	$35.87	$33.19	$30.50
15.3x	$48.16	$45.47	$42.78	$40.10	$37.41
17.3x	$55.07	$52.38	$49.69	$47.00	$44.32
19.3x	$61.98	$59.29	$56.60	$53.91	$51.22

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