CVX — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($182.85)
DCF	$-17.08	-109.3%
Graham Number	$119.01	-34.9%
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	$146.67	-19.8%
EV/EBITDA	$183.47	+0.3%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: —

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -6.0% / EPS: -23.8%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 7.38%

Computed WACC: 7.38%

Cost of equity (Re)8.00%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.67 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)2.48%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)89.80%

Debt weight (D/V)10.20%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-17.08

Current Price$182.85

Upside / Downside-109.3%

Net Debt (used)$33.82B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$-17.08	$-17.08	$-17.08	$-17.08	$-17.08
8.0%	$-17.08	$-17.08	$-17.08	$-17.08	$-17.08
9.0%	$-17.08	$-17.08	$-17.08	$-17.08	$-17.08
10.0%	$-17.08	$-17.08	$-17.08	$-17.08	$-17.08
11.0%	$-17.08	$-17.08	$-17.08	$-17.08	$-17.08

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $6.63

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $94.95

Results

Graham Number$119.01

Current Price$182.85

Margin of Safety-34.9%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 7.38%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 7.38%

Cost of equity (Re)8.00%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.67 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)2.48%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)89.80%

Debt weight (D/V)10.20%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$182.85

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth-6.0%

Historical Earnings Growth-23.8%

Base FCF (TTM)—

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $7.12

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$146.67

Current Price$182.85

Upside / Downside-19.8%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $38.06B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 10.4×

Net Debt($B)Default: $33.82B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$183.47

Current Price$182.85

Upside / Downside+0.3%

Implied EV$397.08B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$17.82B	$25.82B	$33.82B	$41.82B	$49.82B
6.4x	$114.66	$110.62	$106.58	$102.54	$98.50
8.4x	$153.10	$149.06	$145.02	$140.98	$136.94
10.4x	$191.55	$187.51	$183.47	$179.43	$175.39
12.4x	$229.99	$225.95	$221.91	$217.87	$213.83
14.4x	$268.44	$264.40	$260.36	$256.31	$252.27

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