DVN — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($44.95)
DCF	$48.30	+7.4%
Graham Number	$48.40	+7.7%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 4.0%
DDM	$19.78	-56.0%
EV/EBITDA	$44.92	-0.1%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $2.12B

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -12.1% / EPS: -8.5%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 6.98%

Computed WACC: 6.98%

Cost of equity (Re)7.74%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.63 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)5.75%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)76.24%

Debt weight (D/V)23.76%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$75.71

Current Price$44.95

Upside / Downside+68.4%

Net Debt (used)$7.30B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$48.81	$61.07	$75.32	$91.82	$110.82
8.0%	$38.03	$47.89	$59.35	$72.59	$87.82
9.0%	$30.56	$38.77	$48.30	$59.29	$71.92
10.0%	$25.08	$32.08	$40.20	$49.55	$60.28
11.0%	$20.88	$26.96	$34.00	$42.11	$51.40

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $4.17

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $24.96

Results

Graham Number$48.40

Current Price$44.95

Margin of Safety+7.7%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 6.98%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 6.98%

Cost of equity (Re)7.74%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.63 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)5.75%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)76.24%

Debt weight (D/V)23.76%

Results

Current Price$44.95

Implied Near-term FCF Growth-1.9%

Historical Revenue Growth-12.1%

Historical Earnings Growth-8.5%

Base FCF (TTM)$2.12B

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $0.96

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$19.78

Current Price$44.95

Upside / Downside-56.0%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $7.48B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 4.7×

Net Debt($B)Default: $7.30B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$44.92

Current Price$44.95

Upside / Downside-0.1%

Implied EV$35.17B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$3.30B	$5.30B	$7.30B	$9.30B	$11.30B
0.7x	$3.16	$-0.07	$-3.29	$-6.51	$-9.74
2.7x	$27.26	$24.04	$20.82	$17.59	$14.37
4.7x	$51.37	$48.15	$44.92	$41.70	$38.47
6.7x	$75.48	$72.25	$69.03	$65.80	$62.58
8.7x	$99.58	$96.36	$93.13	$89.91	$86.68

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