ERIE — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($269.04)
DCF	$196.24	-27.1%
Graham Number	$110.29	-59.0%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 10.6%
DDM	$120.51	-55.2%
EV/EBITDA	$301.98	+12.2%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $499.90M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 2.9% / EPS: -58.4%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 6.53%

Computed WACC: 6.53%

Cost of equity (Re)6.56%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.41 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)99.56%

Debt weight (D/V)0.44%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$314.12

Current Price$269.04

Upside / Downside+16.8%

Net Debt (used)-$287.65M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$197.87	$236.62	$281.71	$333.89	$394.00
8.0%	$163.77	$194.96	$231.20	$273.08	$321.26
9.0%	$140.14	$166.11	$196.24	$231.01	$270.97
10.0%	$122.79	$144.95	$170.61	$200.20	$234.15
11.0%	$109.51	$128.76	$151.03	$176.66	$206.04

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $12.38

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $43.67

Results

Graham Number$110.29

Current Price$269.04

Margin of Safety-59.0%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 6.53%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 6.53%

Cost of equity (Re)6.56%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.41 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)99.56%

Debt weight (D/V)0.44%

Results

Current Price$269.04

Implied Near-term FCF Growth2.5%

Historical Revenue Growth2.9%

Historical Earnings Growth-58.4%

Base FCF (TTM)$499.90M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $5.85

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$120.51

Current Price$269.04

Upside / Downside-55.2%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $808.99M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 16.9×

Net Debt($B)Default: -$287.65M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$301.98

Current Price$269.04

Upside / Downside+12.2%

Implied EV$13.66B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$2.29B	-$1.29B	-$287.65M	$712.35M	$1.71B
12.9x	$275.22	$253.57	$231.92	$210.27	$188.62
14.9x	$310.25	$288.60	$266.95	$245.30	$223.65
16.9x	$345.28	$323.63	$301.98	$280.33	$258.68
18.9x	$380.31	$358.66	$337.01	$315.36	$293.71
20.9x	$415.34	$393.69	$372.04	$350.39	$328.74

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