ESTC — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($52.07)
DCF	$140.83	+170.5%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: -0.8%
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	—	—

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $387.17M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 17.7% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 8.95%

Computed WACC: 8.95%

Cost of equity (Re)9.53%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.95 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)4.45%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)90.34%

Debt weight (D/V)9.66%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$141.78

Current Price$52.07

Upside / Downside+172.3%

Net Debt (used)-$656.37M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	9.7%	13.7%	17.7%	21.7%	25.7%
7.0%	$150.97	$177.78	$208.53	$243.64	$283.57
8.0%	$122.62	$143.90	$168.29	$196.11	$227.73
9.0%	$103.10	$120.59	$140.60	$163.43	$189.34
10.0%	$88.88	$103.60	$120.44	$139.63	$161.40
11.0%	$78.08	$90.71	$105.15	$121.58	$140.21

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $-1.02

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $7.59

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. EPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$52.07

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 8.95%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 8.95%

Cost of equity (Re)9.53%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.95 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)4.45%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)90.34%

Debt weight (D/V)9.66%

Results

Current Price$52.07

Implied Near-term FCF Growth-0.9%

Historical Revenue Growth17.7%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)$387.17M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$52.07

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: -$16.48M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: -287.2×

Net Debt($B)Default: -$656.37M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$51.15

Current Price$52.07

Upside / Downside-1.8%

Implied EV$4.73B

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