EXC

EXC — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($49.17)
DCF$-84.97-272.8%
Graham Number$41.59-15.4%
Reverse DCF
DDM$34.61-29.6%
EV/EBITDA$49.17+0.0%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: -$2.12B
Rev: -1.1% / EPS: -9.3%
Computed: 3.71%
Computed WACC: 3.71%
Cost of equity (Re)7.41%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.57 × ERP 5.50%)
Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)
Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)
Equity weight (E/V)50.02%
Debt weight (D/V)49.98%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-246.42
Current Price$49.17
Upside / Downside-601.2%
Net Debt (used)$49.62B
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term-3.0%1.0%5.0%9.0%13.0%
7.0%$-85.28$-92.72$-101.37$-111.38$-122.91
8.0%$-78.74$-84.72$-91.68$-99.71$-108.96
9.0%$-74.20$-79.19$-84.97$-91.64$-99.31
10.0%$-70.88$-75.13$-80.05$-85.73$-92.24
11.0%$-68.33$-72.02$-76.29$-81.21$-86.85

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $2.73
Yahoo: $28.16

Results

Graham Number$41.59
Current Price$49.17
Margin of Safety-15.4%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Computed: 3.71%
Computed WACC: 3.71%
Cost of equity (Re)7.41%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.57 × ERP 5.50%)
Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)
Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)
Equity weight (E/V)50.02%
Debt weight (D/V)49.98%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.
Current Price$49.17
Implied Near-term FCF Growth
Historical Revenue Growth-1.1%
Historical Earnings Growth-9.3%
Base FCF (TTM)-$2.12B
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $1.68

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$34.61
Current Price$49.17
Upside / Downside-29.6%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $8.14B
Current: 12.3×
Default: $49.62B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$49.17
Current Price$49.17
Upside / Downside+0.0%
Implied EV$99.92B
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt$25.62B$37.62B$49.62B$61.62B$73.62B
8.3x$40.80$29.07$17.33$5.60$-6.13
10.3x$56.72$44.98$33.25$21.52$9.79
12.3x$72.64$60.90$49.17$37.44$25.71
14.3x$88.56$76.82$65.09$53.36$41.63
16.3x$104.47$92.74$81.01$69.28$57.55