EXPD — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($145.07)
DCF	$110.74	-23.7%
Graham Number	$49.26	-66.0%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 9.8%
DDM	$31.72	-78.1%
EV/EBITDA	$144.49	-0.4%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $803.04M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -3.3% / EPS: -11.5%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 10.21%

Computed WACC: 10.21%

Cost of equity (Re)10.50%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.13 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)97.18%

Debt weight (D/V)2.82%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$94.05

Current Price$145.07

Upside / Downside-35.2%

Net Debt (used)-$743.70M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$111.65	$133.10	$158.06	$186.95	$220.23
8.0%	$92.77	$110.04	$130.10	$153.28	$179.96
9.0%	$79.69	$94.07	$110.74	$130.00	$152.12
10.0%	$70.08	$82.35	$96.56	$112.94	$131.73
11.0%	$62.73	$73.39	$85.71	$99.90	$116.17

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $6.13

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $17.59

Results

Graham Number$49.26

Current Price$145.07

Margin of Safety-66.0%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 10.21%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 10.21%

Cost of equity (Re)10.50%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.13 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)97.18%

Debt weight (D/V)2.82%

Results

Current Price$145.07

Implied Near-term FCF Growth13.1%

Historical Revenue Growth-3.3%

Historical Earnings Growth-11.5%

Base FCF (TTM)$803.04M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $1.54

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$31.72

Current Price$145.07

Upside / Downside-78.1%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $1.11B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 16.8×

Net Debt($B)Default: -$743.70M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$144.49

Current Price$145.07

Upside / Downside-0.4%

Implied EV$18.62B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$2.74B	-$1.74B	-$743.70M	$256.30M	$1.26B
12.8x	$126.30	$118.84	$111.38	$103.92	$96.46
14.8x	$142.86	$135.40	$127.94	$120.47	$113.01
16.8x	$159.41	$151.95	$144.49	$137.03	$129.57
18.8x	$175.97	$168.51	$161.04	$153.58	$146.12
20.8x	$192.52	$185.06	$177.60	$170.14	$162.68

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