FCEL — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($8.33)
DCF	$-18.75	-325.1%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	—	—

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$44.37M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 11.5% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 10.82%

Computed WACC: 10.82%

Cost of equity (Re)11.83%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.37 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)9.45%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)76.89%

Debt weight (D/V)23.11%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-13.73

Current Price$8.33

Upside / Downside-264.8%

Net Debt (used)-$145.57M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	3.5%	7.5%	11.5%	15.5%	19.5%
7.0%	$-19.75	$-24.11	$-29.14	$-34.93	$-41.54
8.0%	$-15.52	$-19.00	$-23.01	$-27.62	$-32.89
9.0%	$-12.60	$-15.47	$-18.78	$-22.58	$-26.92
10.0%	$-10.46	$-12.89	$-15.70	$-18.91	$-22.57
11.0%	$-8.83	$-10.93	$-13.35	$-16.11	$-19.26

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $-7.42

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $14.39

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. EPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$8.33

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 10.82%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 10.82%

Cost of equity (Re)11.83%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.37 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)9.45%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)76.89%

Debt weight (D/V)23.11%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$8.33

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth11.5%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)-$44.37M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$8.33

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: -$80.83M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: -4.0×

Net Debt($B)Default: -$145.57M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$8.81

Current Price$8.33

Upside / Downside+5.8%

Implied EV$321.06M

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