FDX — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($387.00)
DCF	$581.85	+50.3%
Graham Number	$220.65	-43.0%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 6.9%
DDM	$119.48	-69.1%
EV/EBITDA	$580.24	+49.9%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $4.64B

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 13.9% / EPS: -13.3%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 9.56%

Computed WACC: 9.56%

Cost of equity (Re)11.65%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.34 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)82.11%

Debt weight (D/V)17.89%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$532.11

Current Price$387.00

Upside / Downside+37.5%

Net Debt (used)$0

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	5.9%	9.9%	13.9%	17.9%	21.9%
7.0%	$616.53	$733.93	$869.12	$1024.09	$1200.95
8.0%	$498.51	$592.03	$699.61	$822.82	$963.32
9.0%	$417.15	$494.24	$582.84	$684.21	$799.71
10.0%	$357.75	$422.88	$497.66	$583.14	$680.47
11.0%	$312.54	$368.60	$432.90	$506.34	$589.88

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $18.07

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $119.75

Results

Graham Number$220.65

Current Price$387.00

Margin of Safety-43.0%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 9.56%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 9.56%

Cost of equity (Re)11.65%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.34 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)82.11%

Debt weight (D/V)17.89%

Results

Current Price$387.00

Implied Near-term FCF Growth8.4%

Historical Revenue Growth13.9%

Historical Earnings Growth-13.3%

Base FCF (TTM)$4.64B

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $5.80

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$119.48

Current Price$387.00

Upside / Downside-69.1%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $11.37B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: —×

Net Debt($B)Default: $0

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$580.24

Current Price$387.00

Upside / Downside+49.9%

Implied EV$136.43B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$2.00B	-$1.00B	$0	$1.00B	$2.00B
8.0x	$395.33	$391.08	$386.83	$382.57	$378.32
10.0x	$492.04	$487.79	$483.53	$479.28	$475.03
12.0x	$588.75	$584.49	$580.24	$575.99	$571.74
14.0x	$685.45	$681.20	$676.95	$672.70	$668.44
16.0x	$782.16	$777.91	$773.66	$769.40	$765.15

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