FERG — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($247.96)
DCF	$-24.20	-109.8%
Graham Number	$81.66	-67.1%
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	$73.34	-70.4%
EV/EBITDA	$249.22	+0.5%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: —

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 3.6% / EPS: 11.7%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 9.59%

Computed WACC: 9.59%

Cost of equity (Re)10.63%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.15 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)90.19%

Debt weight (D/V)9.81%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-24.20

Current Price$247.96

Upside / Downside-109.8%

Net Debt (used)$4.86B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	3.7%	7.7%	11.7%	15.7%	19.7%
7.0%	$-24.20	$-24.20	$-24.20	$-24.20	$-24.20
8.0%	$-24.20	$-24.20	$-24.20	$-24.20	$-24.20
9.0%	$-24.20	$-24.20	$-24.20	$-24.20	$-24.20
10.0%	$-24.20	$-24.20	$-24.20	$-24.20	$-24.20
11.0%	$-24.20	$-24.20	$-24.20	$-24.20	$-24.20

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $9.87

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $30.03

Results

Graham Number$81.66

Current Price$247.96

Margin of Safety-67.1%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 9.59%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 9.59%

Cost of equity (Re)10.63%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.15 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)90.19%

Debt weight (D/V)9.81%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$247.96

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth3.6%

Historical Earnings Growth11.7%

Base FCF (TTM)—

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $3.56

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$73.34

Current Price$247.96

Upside / Downside-70.4%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $2.99B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 18.4×

Net Debt($B)Default: $4.86B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$249.22

Current Price$247.96

Upside / Downside+0.5%

Implied EV$54.87B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$2.86B	$3.86B	$4.86B	$5.86B	$6.86B
14.4x	$199.68	$194.70	$189.71	$184.73	$179.75
16.4x	$229.43	$224.45	$219.47	$214.48	$209.50
18.4x	$259.19	$254.20	$249.22	$244.24	$239.26
20.4x	$288.94	$283.96	$278.98	$273.99	$269.01
22.4x	$318.69	$313.71	$308.73	$303.75	$298.76

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