FOSL — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($4.68)
DCF	$22.29	+376.3%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: -13.5%
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$4.03	-13.8%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $85.36M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -6.1% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 6.31%

Computed WACC: 6.31%

Cost of equity (Re)13.97%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.76 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)45.14%

Debt weight (D/V)54.86%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$41.29

Current Price$4.68

Upside / Downside+782.2%

Net Debt (used)$241.50M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$22.52	$27.94	$34.25	$41.55	$49.95
8.0%	$17.75	$22.11	$27.18	$33.04	$39.78
9.0%	$14.45	$18.08	$22.29	$27.16	$32.74
10.0%	$12.02	$15.12	$18.71	$22.85	$27.60
11.0%	$10.16	$12.86	$15.97	$19.55	$23.66

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $-1.27

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $2.19

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. EPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$4.68

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 6.31%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 6.31%

Cost of equity (Re)13.97%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.76 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)45.14%

Debt weight (D/V)54.86%

Results

Current Price$4.68

Implied Near-term FCF Growth-19.9%

Historical Revenue Growth-6.1%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)$85.36M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$4.68

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $44.10M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 10.6×

Net Debt($B)Default: $241.50M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$4.03

Current Price$4.68

Upside / Downside-13.8%

Implied EV$468.99M

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.76B	-$758.50M	$241.50M	$1.24B	$2.24B
6.6x	$36.37	$18.64	$0.91	$-16.83	$-34.56
8.6x	$37.94	$20.20	$2.47	$-15.26	$-33.00
10.6x	$39.50	$21.77	$4.03	$-13.70	$-31.43
12.6x	$41.07	$23.33	$5.60	$-12.14	$-29.87
14.6x	$42.63	$24.90	$7.16	$-10.57	$-28.31

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