FOUR

FOUR — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($46.94)
DCF$578.61+1132.7%
Graham Number$18.67-60.2%
Reverse DCFimplied g: 1.5%
DDM
EV/EBITDA$78.46+67.2%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $476.25M
Rev: 33.9% / EPS: -72.2%
Computed: 6.49%
Computed WACC: 6.49%
Cost of equity (Re)13.34%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.64 × ERP 5.50%)
Cost of debt (Rd)0.41%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))
Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)
Equity weight (E/V)47.40%
Debt weight (D/V)52.60%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$1079.16
Current Price$46.94
Upside / Downside+2199.0%
Net Debt (used)$3.65B
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term25.9%29.9%33.9%37.9%41.9%
7.0%$675.68$795.75$931.31$1083.84$1254.88
8.0%$522.17$616.32$722.58$842.09$976.06
9.0%$417.08$493.51$579.72$676.65$785.27
10.0%$340.95$404.56$476.28$556.88$647.16
11.0%$283.50$337.44$398.24$466.53$543.01

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $2.14
Yahoo: $7.24

Results

Graham Number$18.67
Current Price$46.94
Margin of Safety-60.2%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Computed: 6.49%
Computed WACC: 6.49%
Cost of equity (Re)13.34%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.64 × ERP 5.50%)
Cost of debt (Rd)0.41%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))
Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)
Equity weight (E/V)47.40%
Debt weight (D/V)52.60%

Results

Current Price$46.94
Implied Near-term FCF Growth-5.8%
Historical Revenue Growth33.9%
Historical Earnings Growth-72.2%
Base FCF (TTM)$476.25M
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: —

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.
DDM Intrinsic Value / share
Current Price$46.94
Upside / Downside
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $784.00M
Current: 11.4×
Default: $3.65B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$78.46
Current Price$46.94
Upside / Downside+67.2%
Implied EV$8.95B
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt$1.65B$2.65B$3.65B$4.65B$5.65B
7.4x$61.65$46.85$32.05$17.25$2.45
9.4x$84.86$70.06$55.25$40.45$25.65
11.4x$108.06$93.26$78.46$63.66$48.86
13.4x$131.27$116.47$101.67$86.87$72.07
15.4x$154.48$139.68$124.88$110.08$95.28