HAL — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($35.97)
DCF	$37.55	+4.4%
Graham Number	$20.56	-42.8%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 4.4%
DDM	$14.01	-61.1%
EV/EBITDA	$36.02	+0.1%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $2.14B

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 0.8% / EPS: -0.5%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 6.61%

Computed WACC: 6.61%

Cost of equity (Re)8.42%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.75 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)78.45%

Debt weight (D/V)21.55%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$63.95

Current Price$35.97

Upside / Downside+77.8%

Net Debt (used)$6.11B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$37.94	$47.09	$57.73	$70.05	$84.23
8.0%	$29.89	$37.25	$45.81	$55.69	$67.06
9.0%	$24.31	$30.44	$37.55	$45.76	$55.19
10.0%	$20.22	$25.45	$31.51	$38.49	$46.50
11.0%	$17.08	$21.63	$26.88	$32.93	$39.87

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $1.50

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $12.53

Results

Graham Number$20.56

Current Price$35.97

Margin of Safety-42.8%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 6.61%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 6.61%

Cost of equity (Re)8.42%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.75 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)78.45%

Debt weight (D/V)21.55%

Results

Current Price$35.97

Implied Near-term FCF Growth-2.8%

Historical Revenue Growth0.8%

Historical Earnings Growth-0.5%

Base FCF (TTM)$2.14B

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $0.68

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$14.01

Current Price$35.97

Upside / Downside-61.1%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $4.12B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 8.8×

Net Debt($B)Default: $6.11B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$36.02

Current Price$35.97

Upside / Downside+0.1%

Implied EV$36.28B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$2.11B	$4.11B	$6.11B	$8.11B	$10.11B
4.8x	$21.12	$18.73	$16.34	$13.95	$11.57
6.8x	$30.96	$28.57	$26.18	$23.79	$21.41
8.8x	$40.80	$38.41	$36.02	$33.64	$31.25
10.8x	$50.64	$48.25	$45.86	$43.48	$41.09
12.8x	$60.48	$58.09	$55.70	$53.32	$50.93

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