HCA — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($532.92)
DCF	$3861.21	+624.5%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 13.4%
DDM	$64.27	-87.9%
EV/EBITDA	$547.47	+2.7%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $5.82B

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 6.7% / EPS: 44.5%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 9.56%

Computed WACC: 9.56%

Cost of equity (Re)11.81%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.36 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)5.15%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)70.99%

Debt weight (D/V)29.01%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$3456.26

Current Price$532.92

Upside / Downside+548.6%

Net Debt (used)$47.55B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	36.5%	40.5%	44.5%	48.5%	52.5%
7.0%	$4652.02	$5393.79	$6224.09	$7150.66	$8181.67
8.0%	$3598.57	$4176.96	$4824.21	$5546.32	$6349.64
9.0%	$2879.10	$3345.99	$3868.32	$4450.91	$5098.86
10.0%	$2359.32	$2745.73	$3177.89	$3659.78	$4195.60
11.0%	$1968.19	$2294.10	$2658.48	$3064.68	$3516.23

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $28.51

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $-26.83

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. BVPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$532.92

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 9.56%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 9.56%

Cost of equity (Re)11.81%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.36 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)5.15%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)70.99%

Debt weight (D/V)29.01%

Results

Current Price$532.92

Implied Near-term FCF Growth15.0%

Historical Revenue Growth6.7%

Historical Earnings Growth44.5%

Base FCF (TTM)$5.82B

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $3.12

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$64.27

Current Price$532.92

Upside / Downside-87.9%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $15.49B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 11.0×

Net Debt($B)Default: $47.55B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$547.47

Current Price$532.92

Upside / Downside+2.7%

Implied EV$169.98B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$23.55B	$35.55B	$47.55B	$59.55B	$71.55B
7.0x	$377.76	$324.09	$270.43	$216.77	$163.11
9.0x	$516.28	$462.61	$408.95	$355.29	$301.63
11.0x	$654.80	$601.13	$547.47	$493.81	$440.15
13.0x	$793.31	$739.65	$685.99	$632.33	$578.67
15.0x	$931.83	$878.17	$824.51	$770.85	$717.19

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