HCC — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($81.13)
DCF	$-7059208723487.73	-8701107757388.0%
Graham Number	$31.46	-61.2%
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	$6.59	-91.9%
EV/EBITDA	$81.13	+0.0%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$116.73M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 29.4% / EPS: 1918.0%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 7.64%

Computed WACC: 7.64%

Cost of equity (Re)8.12%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.69 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)94.03%

Debt weight (D/V)5.97%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-9980683012629.86

Current Price$81.13

Upside / Downside-12302086789980.3%

Net Debt (used)-$82.28M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	1910.0%	1914.0%	1918.0%	1922.0%	1926.0%
7.0%	$-11784264700455.98	$-11901988686681.46	$-12020651642289.15	$-12140259173044.26	$-12260816906979.10
8.0%	$-8876646839003.84	$-8965323924526.46	$-9054708300642.60	$-9144804189965.98	$-9235615831883.33
9.0%	$-6920388898529.84	$-6989523102960.19	$-7059208723487.73	$-7129449052135.85	$-7200247394004.44
10.0%	$-5530244065389.71	$-5585490819396.00	$-5641178222856.16	$-5697308906502.78	$-5753885511518.21
11.0%	$-4502688101077.95	$-4547669642304.91	$-4593009957398.25	$-4638711188283.03	$-4684775485392.41

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $1.08

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $40.73

Results

Graham Number$31.46

Current Price$81.13

Margin of Safety-61.2%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 7.64%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 7.64%

Cost of equity (Re)8.12%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.69 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)94.03%

Debt weight (D/V)5.97%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$81.13

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth29.4%

Historical Earnings Growth1918.0%

Base FCF (TTM)-$116.73M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $0.32

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$6.59

Current Price$81.13

Upside / Downside-91.9%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $239.47M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 17.5×

Net Debt($B)Default: -$82.28M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$81.13

Current Price$81.13

Upside / Downside+0.0%

Implied EV$4.18B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$2.08B	-$1.08B	-$82.28M	$917.72M	$1.92B
13.5x	$100.96	$81.93	$62.91	$43.89	$24.87
15.5x	$110.07	$91.04	$72.02	$53.00	$33.98
17.5x	$119.18	$100.15	$81.13	$62.11	$43.09
19.5x	$128.29	$109.26	$90.24	$71.22	$52.20
21.5x	$137.40	$118.38	$99.35	$80.33	$61.31

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