HDL

HDL — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($16.56)
DCF$30.13+81.9%
Graham Number$4.77-71.2%
Reverse DCFimplied g: -2.7%
DDM
EV/EBITDA$101.60+513.5%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $83.47M
Rev: 7.8% / EPS: -83.3%
Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$30.13
Current Price$16.56
Upside / Downside+81.9%
Net Debt (used)-$45.82M
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term-0.2%3.8%7.8%11.8%15.8%
7.0%$30.84$36.81$43.74$51.72$60.90
8.0%$25.35$30.14$35.69$42.08$49.41
9.0%$21.56$25.53$30.13$35.42$41.48
10.0%$18.77$22.15$26.06$30.54$35.68
11.0%$16.65$19.58$22.95$26.83$31.26

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $0.96
Yahoo: $1.05

Results

Graham Number$4.77
Current Price$16.56
Margin of Safety-71.2%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Current Price$16.56
Implied Near-term FCF Growth-2.7%
Historical Revenue Growth7.8%
Historical Earnings Growth-83.3%
Base FCF (TTM)$83.47M
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: —

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.
DDM Intrinsic Value / share
Current Price$16.56
Upside / Downside
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $105.47M
Current: 56.2×
Default: -$45.82M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$101.60
Current Price$16.56
Upside / Downside+513.5%
Implied EV$5.93B
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt-$2.05B-$1.05B-$45.82M$954.18M$1.95B
52.2x$128.43$111.43$94.43$77.44$60.44
54.2x$132.01$115.01$98.02$81.02$64.03
56.2x$135.60$118.60$101.60$84.61$67.61
58.2x$139.18$122.19$105.19$88.19$71.20
60.2x$142.77$125.77$108.77$91.78$74.78