HGBL — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($1.32)
DCF	$-6.02	-555.8%
Graham Number	$1.86	+40.6%
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$1.32	+0.0%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$9.97M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 9.1% / EPS: -43.1%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 6.26%

Computed WACC: 6.26%

Cost of equity (Re)7.07%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.50 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)88.60%

Debt weight (D/V)11.40%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-10.94

Current Price$1.32

Upside / Downside-928.6%

Net Debt (used)-$13.54M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	1.1%	5.1%	9.1%	13.1%	17.1%
7.0%	$-6.21	$-7.51	$-9.01	$-10.74	$-12.73
8.0%	$-4.99	$-6.03	$-7.23	$-8.62	$-10.20
9.0%	$-4.15	$-5.01	$-6.01	$-7.15	$-8.46
10.0%	$-3.53	$-4.26	$-5.11	$-6.08	$-7.19
11.0%	$-3.06	$-3.70	$-4.42	$-5.26	$-6.22

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $0.08

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $1.91

Results

Graham Number$1.86

Current Price$1.32

Margin of Safety+40.6%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 6.26%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 6.26%

Cost of equity (Re)7.07%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.50 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)88.60%

Debt weight (D/V)11.40%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$1.32

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth9.1%

Historical Earnings Growth-43.1%

Base FCF (TTM)-$9.97M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$1.32

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $6.65M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 4.9×

Net Debt($B)Default: -$13.54M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$1.32

Current Price$1.32

Upside / Downside+0.0%

Implied EV$32.33M

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$2.01B	-$1.01B	-$13.54M	$986.47M	$1.99B
0.9x	$58.12	$29.34	$0.55	$-28.23	$-57.01
2.9x	$58.51	$29.72	$0.94	$-27.85	$-56.63
4.9x	$58.89	$30.10	$1.32	$-27.46	$-56.25
6.9x	$59.27	$30.49	$1.70	$-27.08	$-55.87
8.9x	$59.65	$30.87	$2.09	$-26.70	$-55.48

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