HGTY

HGTY — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($10.98)
DCF$8479795.31+77229365.5%
Graham Number$3.85-64.9%
Reverse DCFimplied g: -18.6%
DDM
EV/EBITDA$16.23+47.8%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $254.02M
Rev: 22.5% / EPS: 373.0%
Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$8479795.31
Current Price$10.98
Upside / Downside+77229365.5%
Net Debt (used)$17.73M
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term365.0%369.0%373.0%377.0%381.0%
7.0%$13139774.21$13714719.48$14309616.86$14924981.19$15561336.11
8.0%$9942444.89$10377484.68$10827621.40$11293244.62$11774750.55
9.0%$7786562.14$8127267.12$8479795.31$8844451.82$9221546.91
10.0%$6250903.75$6524413.14$6807413.84$7100150.78$7402873.05
11.0%$5112884.62$5336597.94$5568074.50$5807514.63$6055122.07

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $0.30
Yahoo: $2.20

Results

Graham Number$3.85
Current Price$10.98
Margin of Safety-64.9%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Current Price$10.98
Implied Near-term FCF Growth-18.6%
Historical Revenue Growth22.5%
Historical Earnings Growth373.0%
Base FCF (TTM)$254.02M
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: —

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.
DDM Intrinsic Value / share
Current Price$10.98
Upside / Downside
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $217.60M
Current: 7.6×
Default: $17.73M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$16.23
Current Price$10.98
Upside / Downside+47.8%
Implied EV$1.65B
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt-$1.98B-$982.27M$17.73M$1.02B$2.02B
3.6x$27.47$17.52$7.57$-2.38$-12.33
5.6x$31.80$21.85$11.90$1.95$-8.00
7.6x$36.13$26.18$16.23$6.28$-3.67
9.6x$40.46$30.51$20.56$10.61$0.66
11.6x$44.79$34.84$24.89$14.94$4.99