HGV — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($43.11)
DCF	$38335.94	+88825.9%
Graham Number	$13.85	-67.9%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 41.3%
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$42.80	-0.7%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $81.25M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 3.7% / EPS: 187.2%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 4.22%

Computed WACC: 4.22%

Cost of equity (Re)12.38%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.47 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)34.07%

Debt weight (D/V)65.93%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$206020.18

Current Price$43.11

Upside / Downside+477794.2%

Net Debt (used)$7.09B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	179.2%	183.2%	187.2%	191.2%	195.2%
7.0%	$55573.33	$59674.44	$64013.84	$68601.77	$73448.76
8.0%	$42270.23	$45390.74	$48692.55	$52183.45	$55871.45
9.0%	$33277.82	$35735.49	$38335.94	$41085.31	$43989.89
10.0%	$26854.83	$28839.07	$30938.58	$33158.30	$35503.32
11.0%	$22080.89	$23713.26	$25440.45	$27266.52	$29195.66

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $0.55

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $15.51

Results

Graham Number$13.85

Current Price$43.11

Margin of Safety-67.9%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 4.22%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 4.22%

Cost of equity (Re)12.38%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.47 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)34.07%

Debt weight (D/V)65.93%

Results

Current Price$43.11

Implied Near-term FCF Growth15.4%

Historical Revenue Growth3.7%

Historical Earnings Growth187.2%

Base FCF (TTM)$81.25M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$43.11

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $834.00M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 12.9×

Net Debt($B)Default: $7.09B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$42.80

Current Price$43.11

Upside / Downside-0.7%

Implied EV$10.75B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$3.09B	$5.09B	$7.09B	$9.09B	$11.09B
8.9x	$50.56	$27.18	$3.80	$-19.58	$-42.96
10.9x	$70.06	$46.68	$23.30	$-0.08	$-23.46
12.9x	$89.56	$66.18	$42.80	$19.42	$-3.96
14.9x	$109.06	$85.68	$62.30	$38.92	$15.54
16.9x	$128.56	$105.18	$81.80	$58.42	$35.04

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