HLLY — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($3.88)
DCF	$-0.13	-103.3%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 16.4%
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$4.02	+3.6%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $28.92M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 3.2% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 5.24%

Computed WACC: 5.24%

Cost of equity (Re)11.68%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.34 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)44.91%

Debt weight (D/V)55.09%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$5.78

Current Price$3.88

Upside / Downside+49.0%

Net Debt (used)$522.85M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$-0.09	$0.78	$1.79	$2.95	$4.30
8.0%	$-0.85	$-0.16	$0.65	$1.59	$2.67
9.0%	$-1.38	$-0.80	$-0.13	$0.65	$1.54
10.0%	$-1.77	$-1.27	$-0.70	$-0.04	$0.72
11.0%	$-2.07	$-1.64	$-1.14	$-0.57	$0.09

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $-0.21

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $3.72

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. EPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$3.88

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 5.24%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 5.24%

Cost of equity (Re)11.68%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.34 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)44.91%

Debt weight (D/V)55.09%

Results

Current Price$3.88

Implied Near-term FCF Growth1.9%

Historical Revenue Growth3.2%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)$28.92M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$3.88

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $118.74M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 8.4×

Net Debt($B)Default: $522.85M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$4.02

Current Price$3.88

Upside / Downside+3.6%

Implied EV$1.00B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.48B	-$477.15M	$522.85M	$1.52B	$2.52B
4.4x	$16.79	$8.42	$0.04	$-8.33	$-16.70
6.4x	$18.78	$10.41	$2.03	$-6.34	$-14.72
8.4x	$20.77	$12.39	$4.02	$-4.35	$-12.73
10.4x	$22.76	$14.38	$6.01	$-2.36	$-10.74
12.4x	$24.75	$16.37	$8.00	$-0.38	$-8.75

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