HLT — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($304.80)
DCF	$95.26	-68.7%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 22.3%
DDM	$12.36	-95.9%
EV/EBITDA	$304.98	+0.1%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $1.73B

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 7.0% / EPS: -38.5%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 8.77%

Computed WACC: 8.77%

Cost of equity (Re)10.41%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.11 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)84.28%

Debt weight (D/V)15.72%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$100.90

Current Price$304.80

Upside / Downside-66.9%

Net Debt (used)$12.30B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-1.0%	3.0%	7.0%	11.0%	15.0%
7.0%	$98.23	$128.55	$163.73	$204.36	$251.06
8.0%	$70.70	$95.04	$123.24	$155.78	$193.13
9.0%	$51.64	$71.86	$95.26	$122.21	$153.12
10.0%	$37.68	$54.88	$74.77	$97.65	$123.86
11.0%	$27.00	$41.91	$59.13	$78.91	$101.55

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $6.13

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $-23.38

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. BVPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$304.80

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 8.77%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 8.77%

Cost of equity (Re)10.41%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.11 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)84.28%

Debt weight (D/V)15.72%

Results

Current Price$304.80

Implied Near-term FCF Growth21.6%

Historical Revenue Growth7.0%

Historical Earnings Growth-38.5%

Base FCF (TTM)$1.73B

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $0.60

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$12.36

Current Price$304.80

Upside / Downside-95.9%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $2.85B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 28.8×

Net Debt($B)Default: $12.30B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$304.98

Current Price$304.80

Upside / Downside+0.1%

Implied EV$82.23B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$6.30B	$9.30B	$12.30B	$15.30B	$18.30B
24.8x	$281.40	$268.31	$255.23	$242.15	$229.06
26.8x	$306.27	$293.19	$280.11	$267.02	$253.94
28.8x	$331.15	$318.07	$304.98	$291.90	$278.82
30.8x	$356.03	$342.94	$329.86	$316.78	$303.69
32.8x	$380.90	$367.82	$354.74	$341.65	$328.57

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