HMC

HMC — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($29.29)
DCF$-6020.65-20655.3%
Graham Number$32.74+11.8%
Reverse DCFimplied g: 50.7%
DDM$28.63-2.2%
EV/EBITDA$328.87+1022.8%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $39.89B
Rev: -3.4% / EPS: -41.2%
Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-6020.65
Current Price$29.29
Upside / Downside-20655.3%
Net Debt (used)$8.51T
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term-3.0%1.0%5.0%9.0%13.0%
7.0%$-6016.02$-5905.93$-5777.85$-5629.61$-5458.88
8.0%$-6112.89$-6024.28$-5921.35$-5802.37$-5665.51
9.0%$-6180.01$-6106.23$-6020.65$-5921.87$-5808.36
10.0%$-6229.29$-6166.35$-6093.45$-6009.41$-5912.96
11.0%$-6267.02$-6212.33$-6149.09$-6076.28$-5992.81

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $2.33
Yahoo: $20.44

Results

Graham Number$32.74
Current Price$29.29
Margin of Safety+11.8%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Current Price$29.29
Implied Near-term FCF Growth50.7%
Historical Revenue Growth-3.4%
Historical Earnings Growth-41.2%
Base FCF (TTM)$39.89B
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $1.39

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$28.63
Current Price$29.29
Upside / Downside-2.2%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $1.15T
Current: 7.8×
Default: $8.51T

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$328.87
Current Price$29.29
Upside / Downside+1022.8%
Implied EV$8.94T
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt$4.26T$6.38T$8.51T$10.64T$12.77T
3.8x$66.02$-1574.04$-3214.09$-4854.15$-6494.20
5.8x$1837.50$197.44$-1442.61$-3082.67$-4722.72
7.8x$3608.98$1968.92$328.87$-1311.19$-2951.24
9.8x$5380.46$3740.40$2100.35$460.29$-1179.76
11.8x$7151.94$5511.88$3871.83$2231.77$591.72