HNRG — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($18.97)
DCF	$49719414750.00	+262094964317.5%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 30.5%
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$17.68	-6.8%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $12.50M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 39.6% / EPS: 1407.7%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 5.99%

Computed WACC: 5.99%

Cost of equity (Re)5.33%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.19 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)21.41%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)94.37%

Debt weight (D/V)5.63%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$118665945248.98

Current Price$18.97

Upside / Downside+625545309594.2%

Net Debt (used)$40.57M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	1399.7%	1403.7%	1407.7%	1411.7%	1415.7%
7.0%	$82403426579.56	$83508236488.54	$84624864789.87	$85753406048.91	$86893955334.16
8.0%	$62095325369.32	$62927857862.92	$63769296137.94	$64619711454.40	$65479175451.38
9.0%	$48429285848.84	$49078593240.59	$49734846414.88	$50398100948.69	$51068412714.69
10.0%	$38715946236.69	$39235023678.97	$39759653805.62	$40289881046.68	$40825750068.57
11.0%	$31534494851.53	$31957288205.51	$32384604271.98	$32816479239.60	$33252949489.59

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $-4.48

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $3.40

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. EPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$18.97

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 5.99%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 5.99%

Cost of equity (Re)5.33%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.19 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)21.41%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)94.37%

Debt weight (D/V)5.63%

Results

Current Price$18.97

Implied Near-term FCF Growth18.1%

Historical Revenue Growth39.6%

Historical Earnings Growth1407.7%

Base FCF (TTM)$12.50M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$18.97

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $106.60M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 8.2×

Net Debt($B)Default: $40.57M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$17.68

Current Price$18.97

Upside / Downside-6.8%

Implied EV$871.89M

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.96B	-$959.43M	$40.57M	$1.04B	$2.04B
4.2x	$51.15	$29.88	$8.61	$-12.66	$-33.92
6.2x	$55.68	$34.41	$13.15	$-8.12	$-29.39
8.2x	$60.22	$38.95	$17.68	$-3.59	$-24.86
10.2x	$64.75	$43.48	$22.21	$0.95	$-20.32
12.2x	$69.28	$48.02	$26.75	$5.48	$-15.79

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