HPK — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($5.75)
DCF	$-15.60	-371.4%
Graham Number	$10.66	+85.4%
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	$3.30	-42.7%
EV/EBITDA	$5.75	-0.0%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$53.03M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -30.5% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 10.82%

Computed WACC: 10.82%

Cost of equity (Re)8.68%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.80 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)15.35%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)37.80%

Debt weight (D/V)62.20%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-13.96

Current Price$5.75

Upside / Downside-342.8%

Net Debt (used)$1.03B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$-15.67	$-17.18	$-18.94	$-20.97	$-23.32
8.0%	$-14.34	$-15.55	$-16.97	$-18.60	$-20.48
9.0%	$-13.41	$-14.43	$-15.60	$-16.96	$-18.52
10.0%	$-12.74	$-13.60	$-14.60	$-15.76	$-17.08
11.0%	$-12.22	$-12.97	$-13.84	$-14.84	$-15.99

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $0.39

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $12.95

Results

Graham Number$10.66

Current Price$5.75

Margin of Safety+85.4%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 10.82%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 10.82%

Cost of equity (Re)8.68%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.80 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)15.35%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)37.80%

Debt weight (D/V)62.20%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$5.75

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth-30.5%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)-$53.03M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $0.16

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$3.30

Current Price$5.75

Upside / Downside-42.7%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $661.28M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 2.6×

Net Debt($B)Default: $1.03B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$5.75

Current Price$5.75

Upside / Downside-0.0%

Implied EV$1.75B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$1.03B	$1.03B	$1.03B	$1.03B	$1.03B
-1.4x	$-15.31	$-15.31	$-15.31	$-15.31	$-15.31
0.6x	$-4.78	$-4.78	$-4.78	$-4.78	$-4.78
2.6x	$5.75	$5.75	$5.75	$5.75	$5.75
4.6x	$16.28	$16.28	$16.28	$16.28	$16.28
6.6x	$26.81	$26.81	$26.81	$26.81	$26.81

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