HRL — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($24.80)
DCF	$9.74	-60.7%
Graham Number	$17.00	-31.5%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 19.6%
DDM	$24.10	-2.8%
EV/EBITDA	$24.85	+0.2%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $381.51M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 1.3% / EPS: 6.5%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 4.97%

Computed WACC: 4.97%

Cost of equity (Re)6.02%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.31 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)82.68%

Debt weight (D/V)17.32%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$32.17

Current Price$24.80

Upside / Downside+29.7%

Net Debt (used)$1.96B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-1.5%	2.5%	6.5%	10.5%	14.5%
7.0%	$9.99	$12.70	$15.86	$19.50	$23.69
8.0%	$7.54	$9.72	$12.25	$15.17	$18.52
9.0%	$5.85	$7.66	$9.76	$12.18	$14.95
10.0%	$4.61	$6.15	$7.94	$9.99	$12.34
11.0%	$3.66	$5.00	$6.54	$8.32	$10.35

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $0.89

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $14.43

Results

Graham Number$17.00

Current Price$24.80

Margin of Safety-31.5%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 4.97%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 4.97%

Cost of equity (Re)6.02%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.31 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)82.68%

Debt weight (D/V)17.32%

Results

Current Price$24.80

Implied Near-term FCF Growth3.1%

Historical Revenue Growth1.3%

Historical Earnings Growth6.5%

Base FCF (TTM)$381.51M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $1.17

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$24.10

Current Price$24.80

Upside / Downside-2.8%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $1.21B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 12.9×

Net Debt($B)Default: $1.96B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$24.85

Current Price$24.80

Upside / Downside+0.2%

Implied EV$15.63B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$1.96B	$1.96B	$1.96B	$1.96B	$1.96B
8.9x	$16.04	$16.04	$16.04	$16.04	$16.04
10.9x	$20.45	$20.45	$20.45	$20.45	$20.45
12.9x	$24.85	$24.85	$24.85	$24.85	$24.85
14.9x	$29.26	$29.26	$29.26	$29.26	$29.26
16.9x	$33.66	$33.66	$33.66	$33.66	$33.66

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