HSY — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($235.69)
DCF	$160.70	-31.8%
Graham Number	$47.25	-80.0%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 12.6%
DDM	$119.69	-49.2%
EV/EBITDA	$322.62	+36.9%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $1.45B

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 7.0% / EPS: -59.8%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 4.87%

Computed WACC: 4.87%

Cost of equity (Re)4.92%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.11 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)5.71%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)89.28%

Debt weight (D/V)10.72%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$509.80

Current Price$235.69

Upside / Downside+116.3%

Net Debt (used)$4.81B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-1.0%	3.0%	7.0%	11.0%	15.0%
7.0%	$164.56	$203.90	$249.55	$302.28	$362.88
8.0%	$128.83	$160.41	$197.02	$239.23	$287.70
9.0%	$104.10	$130.34	$160.70	$195.68	$235.79
10.0%	$85.98	$108.30	$134.11	$163.80	$197.82
11.0%	$72.12	$91.47	$113.81	$139.49	$168.87

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $4.34

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $22.86

Results

Graham Number$47.25

Current Price$235.69

Margin of Safety-80.0%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 4.87%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 4.87%

Cost of equity (Re)4.92%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.11 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)5.71%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)89.28%

Debt weight (D/V)10.72%

Results

Current Price$235.69

Implied Near-term FCF Growth-3.4%

Historical Revenue Growth7.0%

Historical Earnings Growth-59.8%

Base FCF (TTM)$1.45B

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $5.81

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$119.69

Current Price$235.69

Upside / Downside-49.2%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $1.98B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 26.6×

Net Debt($B)Default: $4.81B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$322.62

Current Price$235.69

Upside / Downside+36.9%

Implied EV$52.59B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$2.81B	$3.81B	$4.81B	$5.81B	$6.81B
22.6x	$282.77	$276.02	$269.27	$262.51	$255.76
24.6x	$309.45	$302.70	$295.94	$289.19	$282.44
26.6x	$336.13	$329.38	$322.62	$315.87	$309.12
28.6x	$362.81	$356.05	$349.30	$342.55	$335.79
30.6x	$389.48	$382.73	$375.98	$369.22	$362.47

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