HTD

HTD — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($25.84)
DCF$9.18-64.5%
Graham Number$41.73+61.5%
Reverse DCFimplied g: 21.2%
DDM$37.49+45.1%
EV/EBITDA

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $30.04M
Rev: 11.1% / EPS: -41.5%
Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$9.14
Current Price$25.84
Upside / Downside-64.6%
Net Debt (used)$427.90M
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term3.1%7.1%11.1%15.1%19.1%
7.0%$10.04$14.34$19.30$25.00$31.53
8.0%$5.90$9.33$13.29$17.83$23.03
9.0%$3.03$5.87$9.14$12.89$17.18
10.0%$0.94$3.34$6.11$9.28$12.90
11.0%$-0.66$1.42$3.80$6.54$9.65

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $2.98
Yahoo: $25.97

Results

Graham Number$41.73
Current Price$25.84
Margin of Safety+61.5%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Current Price$25.84
Implied Near-term FCF Growth21.2%
Historical Revenue Growth11.1%
Historical Earnings Growth-41.5%
Base FCF (TTM)$30.04M
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $1.82

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$37.49
Current Price$25.84
Upside / Downside+45.1%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: —
Current: —×
Default: $427.90M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$-12.08
Current Price$25.84
Upside / Downside-146.7%
Implied EV$0