HTGC — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($14.21)
DCF	$92.25	+549.2%
Graham Number	$22.61	+59.1%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 7.1%
DDM	$38.73	+172.5%
EV/EBITDA	$14.04	-1.2%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $244.65M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 12.8% / EPS: 31.4%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 6.24%

Computed WACC: 6.24%

Cost of equity (Re)8.58%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.78 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)4.55%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)53.13%

Debt weight (D/V)46.87%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$187.86

Current Price$14.21

Upside / Downside+1222.0%

Net Debt (used)$2.25B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	23.4%	27.4%	31.4%	35.4%	39.4%
7.0%	$106.97	$126.94	$149.54	$175.02	$203.65
8.0%	$82.11	$97.79	$115.54	$135.53	$157.99
9.0%	$65.08	$77.83	$92.25	$108.49	$126.73
10.0%	$52.73	$63.36	$75.38	$88.90	$104.08
11.0%	$43.41	$52.44	$62.64	$74.11	$86.99

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $1.85

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $12.28

Results

Graham Number$22.61

Current Price$14.21

Margin of Safety+59.1%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 6.24%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 6.24%

Cost of equity (Re)8.58%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.78 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)4.55%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)53.13%

Debt weight (D/V)46.87%

Results

Current Price$14.21

Implied Near-term FCF Growth-1.7%

Historical Revenue Growth12.8%

Historical Earnings Growth31.4%

Base FCF (TTM)$244.65M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $1.88

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$38.73

Current Price$14.21

Upside / Downside+172.5%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $445.24M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 10.8×

Net Debt($B)Default: $2.25B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$14.04

Current Price$14.21

Upside / Downside-1.2%

Implied EV$4.83B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$245.72M	$1.25B	$2.25B	$3.25B	$4.25B
6.8x	$15.23	$9.79	$4.35	$-1.10	$-6.54
8.8x	$20.08	$14.64	$9.19	$3.75	$-1.69
10.8x	$24.93	$19.49	$14.04	$8.60	$3.15
12.8x	$29.78	$24.33	$18.89	$13.45	$8.00
14.8x	$34.62	$29.18	$23.74	$18.29	$12.85

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