HTLD — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($11.04)
DCF	$-1.85	-116.7%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	$1.65	-85.1%
EV/EBITDA	$11.03	-0.1%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: —

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -26.1% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 9.86%

Computed WACC: 9.86%

Cost of equity (Re)10.60%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.15 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)7.52%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)84.13%

Debt weight (D/V)15.87%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-1.85

Current Price$11.04

Upside / Downside-116.7%

Net Debt (used)$142.94M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$-1.85	$-1.85	$-1.85	$-1.85	$-1.85
8.0%	$-1.85	$-1.85	$-1.85	$-1.85	$-1.85
9.0%	$-1.85	$-1.85	$-1.85	$-1.85	$-1.85
10.0%	$-1.85	$-1.85	$-1.85	$-1.85	$-1.85
11.0%	$-1.85	$-1.85	$-1.85	$-1.85	$-1.85

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $-0.67

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $9.75

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. EPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$11.04

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 9.86%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 9.86%

Cost of equity (Re)10.60%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.15 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)7.52%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)84.13%

Debt weight (D/V)15.87%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$11.04

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth-26.1%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)—

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $0.08

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$1.65

Current Price$11.04

Upside / Downside-85.1%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $100.58M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 9.9×

Net Debt($B)Default: $142.94M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$11.03

Current Price$11.04

Upside / Downside-0.1%

Implied EV$997.12M

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.86B	-$857.05M	$142.94M	$1.14B	$2.14B
5.9x	$31.66	$18.75	$5.83	$-7.08	$-19.99
7.9x	$34.26	$21.34	$8.43	$-4.48	$-17.39
9.9x	$36.85	$23.94	$11.03	$-1.88	$-14.80
11.9x	$39.45	$26.54	$13.63	$0.71	$-12.20
13.9x	$42.05	$29.14	$16.22	$3.31	$-9.60

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