HZO — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($30.17)
DCF	$91.47	+203.2%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: -2.0%
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$31.38	+4.0%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $148.63M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 7.8% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 13.99%

Computed WACC: 13.99%

Cost of equity (Re)13.37%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.65 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)18.14%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)35.18%

Debt weight (D/V)64.82%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$28.65

Current Price$30.17

Upside / Downside-5.0%

Net Debt (used)$1.06B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-0.2%	3.8%	7.8%	11.8%	15.8%
7.0%	$94.88	$123.28	$156.20	$194.19	$237.81
8.0%	$68.77	$91.55	$117.92	$148.31	$183.17
9.0%	$50.71	$69.61	$91.47	$116.62	$145.45
10.0%	$37.48	$53.55	$72.11	$93.45	$117.87
11.0%	$27.37	$41.29	$57.34	$75.78	$96.86

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $-2.59

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $42.35

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. EPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$30.17

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 13.99%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 13.99%

Cost of equity (Re)13.37%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.65 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)18.14%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)35.18%

Debt weight (D/V)64.82%

Results

Current Price$30.17

Implied Near-term FCF Growth8.2%

Historical Revenue Growth7.8%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)$148.63M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$30.17

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $117.43M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 14.9×

Net Debt($B)Default: $1.06B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$31.38

Current Price$30.17

Upside / Downside+4.0%

Implied EV$1.75B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$1.06B	$1.06B	$1.06B	$1.06B	$1.06B
10.9x	$10.06	$10.06	$10.06	$10.06	$10.06
12.9x	$20.72	$20.72	$20.72	$20.72	$20.72
14.9x	$31.38	$31.38	$31.38	$31.38	$31.38
16.9x	$42.04	$42.04	$42.04	$42.04	$42.04
18.9x	$52.70	$52.70	$52.70	$52.70	$52.70

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