JD

JD — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($26.53)
DCF$-235.16-986.4%
Graham Number$40.95+54.3%
Reverse DCF
DDM$20.60-22.4%
EV/EBITDA$105.37+297.2%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: -$13.45B
Rev: 14.9% / EPS: -56.2%
Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-234.66
Current Price$26.53
Upside / Downside-984.5%
Net Debt (used)-$86.18B
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term6.9%10.9%14.9%18.9%22.9%
7.0%$-253.20$-312.54$-380.80$-458.96$-548.07
8.0%$-192.76$-239.98$-294.26$-356.35$-427.09
9.0%$-151.10$-190.00$-234.66$-285.71$-343.82
10.0%$-120.70$-153.54$-191.21$-234.22$-283.16
11.0%$-97.58$-125.82$-158.18$-195.11$-237.09

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $3.10
Yahoo: $24.04

Results

Graham Number$40.95
Current Price$26.53
Margin of Safety+54.3%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.
Current Price$26.53
Implied Near-term FCF Growth
Historical Revenue Growth14.9%
Historical Earnings Growth-56.2%
Base FCF (TTM)-$13.45B
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $1.00

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$20.60
Current Price$26.53
Upside / Downside-22.4%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $27.02B
Current: 2.3×
Default: -$86.18B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$105.37
Current Price$26.53
Upside / Downside+297.2%
Implied EV$63.34B
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt-$130.18B-$108.18B-$86.18B-$64.18B-$42.18B
-1.7x$60.21$44.70$29.20$13.70$-1.81
0.3x$98.29$82.79$67.29$51.78$36.28
2.3x$136.38$120.87$105.37$89.87$74.36
4.3x$174.46$158.96$143.45$127.95$112.45
6.3x$212.55$197.04$181.54$166.04$150.53