JNJ — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($248.43)
DCF	$1317.63	+430.4%
Graham Number	$91.68	-63.1%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 18.2%
DDM	$107.12	-56.9%
EV/EBITDA	$248.43	+0.0%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $16.63B

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 9.1% / EPS: 48.6%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 5.74%

Computed WACC: 5.74%

Cost of equity (Re)6.21%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.35 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)92.39%

Debt weight (D/V)7.61%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$3097.16

Current Price$248.43

Upside / Downside+1146.7%

Net Debt (used)$29.23B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	40.6%	44.6%	48.6%	52.6%	56.6%
7.0%	$1591.84	$1829.50	$2094.72	$2389.83	$2717.31
8.0%	$1241.44	$1426.42	$1632.81	$1862.40	$2117.12
9.0%	$1002.31	$1151.37	$1317.63	$1502.55	$1707.66
10.0%	$829.70	$952.84	$1090.16	$1242.86	$1412.19
11.0%	$699.93	$803.61	$919.19	$1047.68	$1190.14

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $11.03

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $33.87

Results

Graham Number$91.68

Current Price$248.43

Margin of Safety-63.1%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 5.74%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 5.74%

Cost of equity (Re)6.21%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.35 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)92.39%

Debt weight (D/V)7.61%

Results

Current Price$248.43

Implied Near-term FCF Growth6.0%

Historical Revenue Growth9.1%

Historical Earnings Growth48.6%

Base FCF (TTM)$16.63B

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $5.20

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$107.12

Current Price$248.43

Upside / Downside-56.9%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $33.84B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 18.6×

Net Debt($B)Default: $29.23B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$248.43

Current Price$248.43

Upside / Downside+0.0%

Implied EV$627.93B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$15.23B	$22.23B	$29.23B	$36.23B	$43.23B
14.6x	$198.08	$195.18	$192.27	$189.37	$186.46
16.6x	$226.16	$223.26	$220.35	$217.45	$214.54
18.6x	$254.24	$251.34	$248.43	$245.53	$242.62
20.6x	$282.32	$279.42	$276.51	$273.61	$270.70
22.6x	$310.40	$307.50	$304.59	$301.69	$298.78

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