LYB — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($58.16)
DCF	$-10.63	-118.3%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 28.5%
DDM	$98.88	+70.0%
EV/EBITDA	$58.27	+0.2%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $447.00M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -9.2% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 4.49%

Computed WACC: 4.49%

Cost of equity (Re)8.01%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.67 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)56.01%

Debt weight (D/V)43.99%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$45.28

Current Price$58.16

Upside / Downside-22.1%

Net Debt (used)$11.27B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$-10.42	$-5.45	$0.33	$7.02	$14.73
8.0%	$-14.79	$-10.79	$-6.14	$-0.78	$5.40
9.0%	$-17.82	$-14.49	$-10.63	$-6.17	$-1.05
10.0%	$-20.04	$-17.20	$-13.91	$-10.12	$-5.77
11.0%	$-21.74	$-19.28	$-16.42	$-13.14	$-9.37

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $-2.48

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $31.30

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. EPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$58.16

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 4.49%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 4.49%

Cost of equity (Re)8.01%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.67 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)56.01%

Debt weight (D/V)43.99%

Results

Current Price$58.16

Implied Near-term FCF Growth7.2%

Historical Revenue Growth-9.2%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)$447.00M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $4.80

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$98.88

Current Price$58.16

Upside / Downside+70.0%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $2.18B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 13.8×

Net Debt($B)Default: $11.27B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$58.27

Current Price$58.16

Upside / Downside+0.2%

Implied EV$30.04B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$5.27B	$8.27B	$11.27B	$14.27B	$17.27B
9.8x	$49.84	$40.53	$31.22	$21.90	$12.59
11.8x	$63.37	$54.06	$44.74	$35.43	$26.12
13.8x	$76.89	$67.58	$58.27	$48.96	$39.65
15.8x	$90.42	$81.11	$71.80	$62.49	$53.17
17.8x	$103.95	$94.64	$85.32	$76.01	$66.70

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