MATX — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($171.24)
DCF	$460.09	+168.7%
Graham Number	$166.84	-2.6%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 4.5%
DDM	$29.66	-82.7%
EV/EBITDA	$164.10	-4.2%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $325.91M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -4.3% / EPS: 21.2%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 10.93%

Computed WACC: 10.93%

Cost of equity (Re)11.64%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.33 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)93.93%

Debt weight (D/V)6.07%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$337.56

Current Price$171.24

Upside / Downside+97.1%

Net Debt (used)$209.90M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	13.2%	17.2%	21.2%	25.2%	29.2%
7.0%	$504.24	$596.52	$701.97	$821.97	$957.98
8.0%	$402.19	$475.21	$558.59	$653.41	$760.82
9.0%	$332.05	$391.85	$460.09	$537.64	$625.44
10.0%	$281.01	$331.22	$388.47	$453.49	$527.05
11.0%	$242.31	$285.26	$334.20	$389.73	$452.53

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $13.81

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $89.58

Results

Graham Number$166.84

Current Price$171.24

Margin of Safety-2.6%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 10.93%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 10.93%

Cost of equity (Re)11.64%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.33 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)93.93%

Debt weight (D/V)6.07%

Results

Current Price$171.24

Implied Near-term FCF Growth9.2%

Historical Revenue Growth-4.3%

Historical Earnings Growth21.2%

Base FCF (TTM)$325.91M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $1.44

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$29.66

Current Price$171.24

Upside / Downside-82.7%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $634.20M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 8.4×

Net Debt($B)Default: $209.90M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$164.10

Current Price$171.24

Upside / Downside-4.2%

Implied EV$5.33B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.79B	-$790.10M	$209.90M	$1.21B	$2.21B
4.4x	$146.89	$114.82	$82.74	$50.67	$18.60
6.4x	$187.57	$155.50	$123.42	$91.35	$59.28
8.4x	$228.25	$196.18	$164.10	$132.03	$99.96
10.4x	$268.93	$236.85	$204.78	$172.71	$140.64
12.4x	$309.61	$277.53	$245.46	$213.39	$181.32

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