MPLX — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($59.14)
DCF	$20.36	-65.6%
Graham Number	$39.16	-33.8%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 20.1%
DDM	$88.79	+50.1%
EV/EBITDA	$59.38	+0.4%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $2.00B

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 7.1% / EPS: 9.1%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 6.22%

Computed WACC: 6.22%

Cost of equity (Re)7.36%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.56 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)4.53%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)69.69%

Debt weight (D/V)30.31%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$55.04

Current Price$59.14

Upside / Downside-6.9%

Net Debt (used)$24.02B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	1.1%	5.1%	9.1%	13.1%	17.1%
7.0%	$21.67	$30.59	$40.93	$52.83	$66.48
8.0%	$13.30	$20.45	$28.72	$38.23	$49.12
9.0%	$7.52	$13.44	$20.28	$28.15	$37.14
10.0%	$3.29	$8.32	$14.12	$20.78	$28.39
11.0%	$0.06	$4.41	$9.42	$15.16	$21.73

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $4.84

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $14.08

Results

Graham Number$39.16

Current Price$59.14

Margin of Safety-33.8%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 6.22%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 6.22%

Cost of equity (Re)7.36%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.56 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)4.53%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)69.69%

Debt weight (D/V)30.31%

Results

Current Price$59.14

Implied Near-term FCF Growth9.9%

Historical Revenue Growth7.1%

Historical Earnings Growth9.1%

Base FCF (TTM)$2.00B

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $4.31

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$88.79

Current Price$59.14

Upside / Downside+50.1%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $6.11B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 13.8×

Net Debt($B)Default: $24.02B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$59.38

Current Price$59.14

Upside / Downside+0.4%

Implied EV$84.29B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$12.02B	$18.02B	$24.02B	$30.02B	$36.02B
9.8x	$47.11	$41.20	$35.29	$29.37	$23.46
11.8x	$59.15	$53.24	$47.33	$41.42	$35.51
13.8x	$71.20	$65.29	$59.38	$53.47	$47.55
15.8x	$83.24	$77.33	$71.42	$65.51	$59.60
17.8x	$95.29	$89.38	$83.47	$77.56	$71.64

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