MSTR — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($137.65)
DCF	$-206.91	-250.3%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	—	—

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$3.36B

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 1.9% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 20.13%

Computed WACC: 20.13%

Cost of equity (Re)23.74%(Rf 4.30% + β 3.54 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)84.78%

Debt weight (D/V)15.22%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-87.09

Current Price$137.65

Upside / Downside-163.3%

Net Debt (used)$5.95B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$-208.53	$-246.87	$-291.47	$-343.10	$-402.56
8.0%	$-174.79	$-205.65	$-241.50	$-282.93	$-330.60
9.0%	$-151.41	$-177.11	$-206.91	$-241.31	$-280.84
10.0%	$-134.25	$-156.17	$-181.56	$-210.83	$-244.42
11.0%	$-121.11	$-140.16	$-162.18	$-187.54	$-216.61

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $-15.22

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $141.39

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. EPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$137.65

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 20.13%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 20.13%

Cost of equity (Re)23.74%(Rf 4.30% + β 3.54 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)84.78%

Debt weight (D/V)15.22%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$137.65

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth1.9%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)-$3.36B

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$137.65

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: -$5.44B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: -10.8×

Net Debt($B)Default: $5.95B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$168.28

Current Price$137.65

Upside / Downside+22.3%

Implied EV$58.81B

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