NAT

NAT — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($5.96)
DCF$-56746605367.50-952124251232.6%
Graham Number
Reverse DCF
DDM$9.68+62.4%
EV/EBITDA$5.96-0.0%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: -$133.78M
Rev: -65.6% / EPS: 1297.6%
Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-56746605367.50
Current Price$5.96
Upside / Downside-952124251232.6%
Net Debt (used)$378.28M
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term1289.6%1293.6%1297.6%1301.6%1305.6%
7.0%$-93800327770.86$-95158155830.52$-96531663002.48$-97920984683.81$-99326257048.86
8.0%$-70692210889.85$-71715532114.94$-72750669834.83$-73797726090.95$-74856803510.48
9.0%$-55140976771.77$-55939182548.84$-56746605367.50$-57563324821.58$-58389420961.80
10.0%$-44086960861.50$-44725151702.31$-45370711860.16$-46023704972.85$-46684195043.47
11.0%$-35913705504.32$-36433582517.74$-36959462654.74$-37491397755.32$-38029439957.08

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $0.00
Yahoo: $2.10

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. EPS is zero or negative.
Graham Number
Current Price$5.96
Margin of Safety
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.
Current Price$5.96
Implied Near-term FCF Growth
Historical Revenue Growth-65.6%
Historical Earnings Growth1297.6%
Base FCF (TTM)-$133.78M
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $0.47

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$9.68
Current Price$5.96
Upside / Downside+62.4%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $87.46M
Current: 18.8×
Default: $378.28M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$5.96
Current Price$5.96
Upside / Downside-0.0%
Implied EV$1.64B
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt-$1.62B-$621.72M$378.28M$1.38B$2.38B
14.8x$13.75$9.03$4.31$-0.41$-5.14
16.8x$14.58$9.86$5.13$0.41$-4.31
18.8x$15.40$10.68$5.96$1.24$-3.49
20.8x$16.23$11.51$6.79$2.06$-2.66
22.8x$17.06$12.33$7.61$2.89$-1.83