NCI

NCI — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($5.02)
DCF$16.80+234.7%
Graham Number$3.40-32.4%
Reverse DCFimplied g: 18.5%
DDM
EV/EBITDA$1.11-77.8%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $4.15M
Rev: -24.0% / EPS: 34.0%
Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$16.80
Current Price$5.02
Upside / Downside+234.7%
Net Debt (used)$66.87M
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term26.0%30.0%34.0%38.0%42.0%
7.0%$19.90$23.78$28.15$33.07$38.58
8.0%$14.95$17.98$21.41$25.26$29.58
9.0%$11.56$14.02$16.80$19.93$23.43
10.0%$9.10$11.15$13.46$16.06$18.97
11.0%$7.24$8.98$10.94$13.15$15.61

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $0.28
Yahoo: $1.83

Results

Graham Number$3.40
Current Price$5.02
Margin of Safety-32.4%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Current Price$5.02
Implied Near-term FCF Growth18.5%
Historical Revenue Growth-24.0%
Historical Earnings Growth34.0%
Base FCF (TTM)$4.15M
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: —

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.
DDM Intrinsic Value / share
Current Price$5.02
Upside / Downside
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $17.30M
Current: 5.0×
Default: $66.87M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$1.11
Current Price$5.02
Upside / Downside-77.8%
Implied EV$87.26M
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt-$1.93B-$933.13M$66.87M$1.07B$2.07B
1.0x$106.54$51.94$-2.66$-57.27$-111.87
3.0x$108.43$53.83$-0.78$-55.38$-109.98
5.0x$110.32$55.72$1.11$-53.49$-108.09
7.0x$112.21$57.61$3.00$-51.60$-106.20
9.0x$114.10$59.49$4.89$-49.71$-104.31