NCLH — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($20.83)
DCF	$-97.64	-568.7%
Graham Number	$12.32	-40.8%
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$22.18	+6.5%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$1.52B

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 6.4% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 5.84%

Computed WACC: 5.84%

Cost of equity (Re)15.54%(Rf 4.30% + β 2.04 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)37.57%

Debt weight (D/V)62.43%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-159.46

Current Price$20.83

Upside / Downside-865.5%

Net Debt (used)$15.54B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-1.6%	2.4%	6.4%	10.4%	14.4%
7.0%	$-98.69	$-111.63	$-126.65	$-144.02	$-163.98
8.0%	$-87.05	$-97.45	$-109.50	$-123.41	$-139.39
9.0%	$-79.00	$-87.64	$-97.64	$-109.17	$-122.41
10.0%	$-73.09	$-80.44	$-88.95	$-98.75	$-109.98
11.0%	$-68.57	$-74.95	$-82.32	$-90.80	$-100.50

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $1.39

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $4.85

Results

Graham Number$12.32

Current Price$20.83

Margin of Safety-40.8%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 5.84%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 5.84%

Cost of equity (Re)15.54%(Rf 4.30% + β 2.04 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)37.57%

Debt weight (D/V)62.43%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$20.83

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth6.4%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)-$1.52B

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$20.83

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $2.63B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 9.8×

Net Debt($B)Default: $15.54B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$22.18

Current Price$20.83

Upside / Downside+6.5%

Implied EV$25.64B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$7.54B	$11.54B	$15.54B	$19.54B	$23.54B
5.8x	$16.66	$7.88	$-0.91	$-9.69	$-18.48
7.8x	$28.21	$19.42	$10.64	$1.85	$-6.94
9.8x	$39.75	$30.97	$22.18	$13.39	$4.61
11.8x	$51.30	$42.51	$33.73	$24.94	$16.15
13.8x	$62.84	$54.06	$45.27	$36.48	$27.70

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