NCV-PA

NCV-PA — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($21.24)
DCF$1.54-92.7%
Graham Number$22.87+7.7%
Reverse DCFimplied g: 44.1%
DDM$29.05+36.8%
EV/EBITDA

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $12.91M
Rev: -3.6% / EPS: -7.8%
Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$1.54
Current Price$21.24
Upside / Downside-92.7%
Net Debt (used)$89.04M
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term-3.0%1.0%5.0%9.0%13.0%
7.0%$1.56$2.08$2.69$3.38$4.19
8.0%$1.11$1.53$2.01$2.57$3.21
9.0%$0.79$1.14$1.54$2.01$2.54
10.0%$0.56$0.86$1.20$1.60$2.05
11.0%$0.38$0.64$0.94$1.28$1.67

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $1.47
Yahoo: $15.79

Results

Graham Number$22.87
Current Price$21.24
Margin of Safety+7.7%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Current Price$21.24
Implied Near-term FCF Growth44.1%
Historical Revenue Growth-3.6%
Historical Earnings Growth-7.8%
Base FCF (TTM)$12.91M
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $1.41

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$29.05
Current Price$21.24
Upside / Downside+36.8%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: —
Current: —×
Default: $89.04M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$-1.00
Current Price$21.24
Upside / Downside-104.7%
Implied EV$0