NFG — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($92.66)
DCF	$-20116.57	-21810.1%
Graham Number	$78.05	-15.8%
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	$44.08	-52.4%
EV/EBITDA	$92.67	+0.0%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$2.35M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 18.6% / EPS: 304.1%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 6.76%

Computed WACC: 6.76%

Cost of equity (Re)7.59%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.60 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)5.25%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)76.04%

Debt weight (D/V)23.96%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-36379.04

Current Price$92.66

Upside / Downside-39360.8%

Net Debt (used)$2.50B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	296.1%	300.1%	304.1%	308.1%	312.1%
7.0%	$-30593.24	$-32168.03	$-33807.07	$-35512.31	$-37285.72
8.0%	$-23185.41	$-24378.54	$-25620.34	$-26912.29	$-28255.90
9.0%	$-18187.52	$-19123.15	$-20096.94	$-21110.06	$-22163.69
10.0%	$-14625.15	$-15377.24	$-16160.01	$-16974.38	$-17821.32
11.0%	$-11983.37	$-12599.34	$-13240.45	$-13907.44	$-14601.10

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $7.17

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $37.76

Results

Graham Number$78.05

Current Price$92.66

Margin of Safety-15.8%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 6.76%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 6.76%

Cost of equity (Re)7.59%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.60 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)5.25%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)76.04%

Debt weight (D/V)23.96%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$92.66

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth18.6%

Historical Earnings Growth304.1%

Base FCF (TTM)-$2.35M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $2.14

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$44.08

Current Price$92.66

Upside / Downside-52.4%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $1.50B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 7.5×

Net Debt($B)Default: $2.50B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$92.67

Current Price$92.66

Upside / Downside+0.0%

Implied EV$11.31B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$502.49M	$1.50B	$2.50B	$3.50B	$4.50B
3.5x	$50.40	$39.87	$29.35	$18.83	$8.30
5.5x	$82.06	$71.53	$61.01	$50.49	$39.96
7.5x	$113.71	$103.19	$92.67	$82.14	$71.62
9.5x	$145.37	$134.85	$124.33	$113.80	$103.28
11.5x	$177.03	$166.51	$155.98	$145.46	$134.94

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