NGL-PC — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($25.12)
DCF	$10.69	-57.4%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 12.7%
DDM	$59.74	+137.8%
EV/EBITDA	$31.47	+25.3%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $224.44M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 6.8% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 7.19%

Computed WACC: 7.19%

Cost of equity (Re)6.48%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.40 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)9.62%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)36.69%

Debt weight (D/V)63.31%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$24.79

Current Price$25.12

Upside / Downside-1.3%

Net Debt (used)$3.06B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-1.2%	2.8%	6.8%	10.8%	14.8%
7.0%	$11.36	$18.56	$26.93	$36.59	$47.70
8.0%	$4.83	$10.62	$17.33	$25.07	$33.95
9.0%	$0.31	$5.12	$10.69	$17.10	$24.46
10.0%	$-3.00	$1.10	$5.83	$11.27	$17.51
11.0%	$-5.53	$-1.98	$2.12	$6.83	$12.22

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $-2.22

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $-1.57

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. EPS is zero or negative. BVPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$25.12

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 7.19%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 7.19%

Cost of equity (Re)6.48%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.40 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)9.62%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)36.69%

Debt weight (D/V)63.31%

Results

Current Price$25.12

Implied Near-term FCF Growth6.9%

Historical Revenue Growth6.8%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)$224.44M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $2.90

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$59.74

Current Price$25.12

Upside / Downside+137.8%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $670.60M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 10.4×

Net Debt($B)Default: $3.06B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$31.47

Current Price$25.12

Upside / Downside+25.3%

Implied EV$6.95B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$1.06B	$2.06B	$3.06B	$4.06B	$5.06B
6.4x	$25.96	$17.88	$9.80	$1.71	$-6.37
8.4x	$36.80	$28.72	$20.63	$12.55	$4.47
10.4x	$47.64	$39.55	$31.47	$23.39	$15.31
12.4x	$58.48	$50.39	$42.31	$34.23	$26.15
14.4x	$69.31	$61.23	$53.15	$45.07	$36.99

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