NHI

NHI — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($87.05)
DCF$42.68-51.0%
Graham Number$49.13-43.6%
Reverse DCFimplied g: 13.2%
DDM$75.40-13.4%
EV/EBITDA$84.51-2.9%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $195.67M
Rev: -11.7% / EPS: -14.1%
Computed: 6.70%
Computed WACC: 6.70%
Cost of equity (Re)7.92%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.66 × ERP 5.50%)
Cost of debt (Rd)4.00%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))
Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)
Equity weight (E/V)74.29%
Debt weight (D/V)25.71%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$82.65
Current Price$87.05
Upside / Downside-5.1%
Net Debt (used)$1.40B
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term-3.0%1.0%5.0%9.0%13.0%
7.0%$43.30$58.00$75.12$94.92$117.73
8.0%$30.36$42.19$55.94$71.84$90.12
9.0%$21.39$31.24$42.68$55.87$71.04
10.0%$14.80$23.21$32.95$44.18$57.06
11.0%$9.76$17.07$25.52$35.25$46.40

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $3.18
Yahoo: $33.73

Results

Graham Number$49.13
Current Price$87.05
Margin of Safety-43.6%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Computed: 6.70%
Computed WACC: 6.70%
Cost of equity (Re)7.92%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.66 × ERP 5.50%)
Cost of debt (Rd)4.00%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))
Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)
Equity weight (E/V)74.29%
Debt weight (D/V)25.71%

Results

Current Price$87.05
Implied Near-term FCF Growth5.6%
Historical Revenue Growth-11.7%
Historical Earnings Growth-14.1%
Base FCF (TTM)$195.67M
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $3.66

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$75.40
Current Price$87.05
Upside / Downside-13.4%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $276.77M
Current: 19.6×
Default: $1.40B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$84.51
Current Price$87.05
Upside / Downside-2.9%
Implied EV$5.43B
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt$1.40B$1.40B$1.40B$1.40B$1.40B
15.6x$61.27$61.27$61.27$61.27$61.27
17.6x$72.89$72.89$72.89$72.89$72.89
19.6x$84.51$84.51$84.51$84.51$84.51
21.6x$96.13$96.13$96.13$96.13$96.13
23.6x$107.75$107.75$107.75$107.75$107.75