NLY — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($23.24)
DCF	$-161.15	-793.4%
Graham Number	$36.44	+56.8%
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	$57.68	+148.2%
EV/EBITDA	—	—

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: —

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 113.9% / EPS: 81.1%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 4.30%

Computed WACC: 4.30%

Cost of equity (Re)11.46%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.30 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)4.15%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)12.56%

Debt weight (D/V)87.44%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-161.15

Current Price$23.24

Upside / Downside-793.4%

Net Debt (used)$115.77B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	105.9%	109.9%	113.9%	117.9%	121.9%
7.0%	$-161.15	$-161.15	$-161.15	$-161.15	$-161.15
8.0%	$-161.15	$-161.15	$-161.15	$-161.15	$-161.15
9.0%	$-161.15	$-161.15	$-161.15	$-161.15	$-161.15
10.0%	$-161.15	$-161.15	$-161.15	$-161.15	$-161.15
11.0%	$-161.15	$-161.15	$-161.15	$-161.15	$-161.15

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $2.92

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $20.21

Results

Graham Number$36.44

Current Price$23.24

Margin of Safety+56.8%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 4.30%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 4.30%

Cost of equity (Re)11.46%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.30 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)4.15%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)12.56%

Debt weight (D/V)87.44%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$23.24

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth113.9%

Historical Earnings Growth81.1%

Base FCF (TTM)—

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $2.80

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$57.68

Current Price$23.24

Upside / Downside+148.2%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: —

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: —×

Net Debt($B)Default: $115.77B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$-161.15

Current Price$23.24

Upside / Downside-793.4%

Implied EV$0

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