NOG — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($27.88)
DCF	$-24.40	-187.5%
Graham Number	$29.99	+7.6%
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	$37.08	+33.0%
EV/EBITDA	$27.37	-1.8%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: —

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -17.1% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 5.24%

Computed WACC: 5.24%

Cost of equity (Re)9.86%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.01 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)53.18%

Debt weight (D/V)46.82%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-24.40

Current Price$27.88

Upside / Downside-187.5%

Net Debt (used)$2.38B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$-24.40	$-24.40	$-24.40	$-24.40	$-24.40
8.0%	$-24.40	$-24.40	$-24.40	$-24.40	$-24.40
9.0%	$-24.40	$-24.40	$-24.40	$-24.40	$-24.40
10.0%	$-24.40	$-24.40	$-24.40	$-24.40	$-24.40
11.0%	$-24.40	$-24.40	$-24.40	$-24.40	$-24.40

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $1.82

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $21.97

Results

Graham Number$29.99

Current Price$27.88

Margin of Safety+7.6%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 5.24%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 5.24%

Cost of equity (Re)9.86%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.01 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)53.18%

Debt weight (D/V)46.82%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$27.88

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth-17.1%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)—

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $1.80

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$37.08

Current Price$27.88

Upside / Downside+33.0%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $1.66B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 3.0×

Net Debt($B)Default: $2.38B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$27.37

Current Price$27.88

Upside / Downside-1.8%

Implied EV$5.05B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$381.09M	$1.38B	$2.38B	$3.38B	$4.38B
-1.0x	$-20.30	$-30.54	$-40.79	$-51.03	$-61.28
1.0x	$13.78	$3.54	$-6.71	$-16.96	$-27.20
3.0x	$47.86	$37.61	$27.37	$17.12	$6.88
5.0x	$81.93	$71.69	$61.44	$51.20	$40.95
7.0x	$116.01	$105.76	$95.52	$85.27	$75.03

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