NVAX — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($10.14)
DCF	$-937.77	-9348.2%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$10.17	+0.3%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$331.94M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 66.6% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 16.54%

Computed WACC: 16.54%

Cost of equity (Re)18.78%(Rf 4.30% + β 2.63 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)4.15%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)85.56%

Debt weight (D/V)14.44%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-298.21

Current Price$10.14

Upside / Downside-3040.9%

Net Debt (used)-$457.04M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	58.6%	62.6%	66.6%	70.6%	74.6%
7.0%	$-1183.01	$-1338.95	$-1510.94	$-1700.17	$-1907.92
8.0%	$-916.29	$-1036.89	$-1169.87	$-1316.18	$-1476.80
9.0%	$-734.76	$-831.31	$-937.77	$-1054.87	$-1183.41
10.0%	$-604.12	$-683.37	$-770.74	$-866.84	$-972.31
11.0%	$-506.22	$-572.51	$-645.59	$-725.95	$-814.14

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $2.01

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $-0.79

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. BVPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$10.14

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 16.54%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 16.54%

Cost of equity (Re)18.78%(Rf 4.30% + β 2.63 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)4.15%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)85.56%

Debt weight (D/V)14.44%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$10.14

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth66.6%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)-$331.94M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$10.14

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $590.85M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 2.0×

Net Debt($B)Default: -$457.04M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$10.17

Current Price$10.14

Upside / Downside+0.3%

Implied EV$1.20B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$2.46B	-$1.46B	-$457.04M	$542.96M	$1.54B
-2.0x	$7.93	$1.78	$-4.38	$-10.53	$-16.68
0.0x	$15.20	$9.05	$2.90	$-3.26	$-9.41
2.0x	$22.48	$16.32	$10.17	$4.01	$-2.14
4.0x	$29.75	$23.59	$17.44	$11.29	$5.13
6.0x	$37.02	$30.87	$24.71	$18.56	$12.40

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