NVGS

NVGS — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($21.25)
DCF$-44.57-309.7%
Graham Number$25.24+18.8%
Reverse DCF
DDM$5.77-72.9%
EV/EBITDA$21.93+3.2%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: -$1.50M
Rev: 7.9% / EPS: 92.3%
Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-44.62
Current Price$21.25
Upside / Downside-310.0%
Net Debt (used)$771.39M
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term84.3%88.3%92.3%96.3%100.3%
7.0%$-55.17$-60.07$-65.40$-71.19$-77.48
8.0%$-45.16$-48.92$-53.02$-57.48$-62.31
9.0%$-38.36$-41.36$-44.62$-48.17$-52.01
10.0%$-33.49$-35.93$-38.59$-41.48$-44.62
11.0%$-29.85$-31.88$-34.09$-36.49$-39.10

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $1.52
Yahoo: $18.63

Results

Graham Number$25.24
Current Price$21.25
Margin of Safety+18.8%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.
Current Price$21.25
Implied Near-term FCF Growth
Historical Revenue Growth7.9%
Historical Earnings Growth92.3%
Base FCF (TTM)-$1.50M
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $0.28

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$5.77
Current Price$21.25
Upside / Downside-72.9%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $253.88M
Current: 8.7×
Default: $771.39M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$21.93
Current Price$21.25
Upside / Downside+3.2%
Implied EV$2.21B
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt-$1.23B-$228.61M$771.39M$1.77B$2.77B
4.7x$36.95$21.69$6.43$-8.83$-24.08
6.7x$44.70$29.44$14.18$-1.08$-16.34
8.7x$52.44$37.19$21.93$6.67$-8.59
10.7x$60.19$44.93$29.68$14.42$-0.84
12.7x$67.94$52.68$37.42$22.16$6.91