NWN — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($52.45)
DCF	$-269.51	-613.8%
Graham Number	$44.77	-14.6%
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	$40.58	-22.6%
EV/EBITDA	$52.67	+0.4%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$162.62M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 6.3% / EPS: 24.1%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 3.18%

Computed WACC: 3.18%

Cost of equity (Re)7.11%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.51 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)44.79%

Debt weight (D/V)55.21%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-2402.46

Current Price$52.45

Upside / Downside-4680.5%

Net Debt (used)$2.64B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	16.1%	20.1%	24.1%	28.1%	32.1%
7.0%	$-291.39	$-331.64	$-377.50	$-429.55	$-488.39
8.0%	$-245.29	$-277.07	$-313.25	$-354.29	$-400.66
9.0%	$-213.63	$-239.60	$-269.15	$-302.65	$-340.48
10.0%	$-190.63	$-212.38	$-237.12	$-265.15	$-296.78
11.0%	$-173.20	$-191.77	$-212.88	$-236.77	$-263.72

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $2.51

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $35.49

Results

Graham Number$44.77

Current Price$52.45

Margin of Safety-14.6%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 3.18%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 3.18%

Cost of equity (Re)7.11%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.51 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)44.79%

Debt weight (D/V)55.21%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$52.45

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth6.3%

Historical Earnings Growth24.1%

Base FCF (TTM)-$162.62M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $1.97

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$40.58

Current Price$52.45

Upside / Downside-22.6%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $473.46M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 10.2×

Net Debt($B)Default: $2.64B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$52.67

Current Price$52.45

Upside / Downside+0.4%

Implied EV$4.83B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$643.76M	$1.64B	$2.64B	$3.64B	$4.64B
6.2x	$55.22	$31.13	$7.04	$-17.05	$-41.15
8.2x	$78.04	$53.94	$29.85	$5.76	$-18.33
10.2x	$100.85	$76.76	$52.67	$28.57	$4.48
12.2x	$123.66	$99.57	$75.48	$51.39	$27.29
14.2x	$146.48	$122.38	$98.29	$74.20	$50.11

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