ODFL — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($203.89)
DCF	$66.41	-67.4%
Graham Number	$47.45	-76.7%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 24.5%
DDM	$23.90	-88.3%
EV/EBITDA	$207.08	+1.6%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $792.12M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -5.7% / EPS: -10.5%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 10.97%

Computed WACC: 10.97%

Cost of equity (Re)11.00%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.22 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.99%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)99.67%

Debt weight (D/V)0.33%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$50.76

Current Price$203.89

Upside / Downside-75.1%

Net Debt (used)$21.30M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$66.98	$80.54	$96.32	$114.59	$135.63
8.0%	$55.04	$65.96	$78.64	$93.30	$110.17
9.0%	$46.77	$55.86	$66.41	$78.58	$92.56
10.0%	$40.70	$48.45	$57.44	$67.79	$79.68
11.0%	$36.05	$42.79	$50.58	$59.55	$69.84

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $4.84

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $20.67

Results

Graham Number$47.45

Current Price$203.89

Margin of Safety-76.7%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 10.97%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 10.97%

Cost of equity (Re)11.00%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.22 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.99%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)99.67%

Debt weight (D/V)0.33%

Results

Current Price$203.89

Implied Near-term FCF Growth30.5%

Historical Revenue Growth-5.7%

Historical Earnings Growth-10.5%

Base FCF (TTM)$792.12M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $1.16

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$23.90

Current Price$203.89

Upside / Downside-88.3%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $1.73B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 25.1×

Net Debt($B)Default: $21.30M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$207.08

Current Price$203.89

Upside / Downside+1.6%

Implied EV$43.32B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.98B	-$978.70M	$21.30M	$1.02B	$2.02B
21.1x	$183.63	$178.85	$174.07	$169.28	$164.50
23.1x	$200.14	$195.35	$190.57	$185.79	$181.01
25.1x	$216.64	$211.86	$207.08	$202.30	$197.51
27.1x	$233.15	$228.37	$223.59	$218.80	$214.02
29.1x	$249.66	$244.87	$240.09	$235.31	$230.53

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